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The Coalition may have secured the majority of votes to retain power in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, but the government says the result is a “lethargic win”.

Gold Coast City councillor, Cameron Caldwell, will become the next Fadden MP after beating out a field of candidates for Stuart Robert’s vacated seat.

As of Sunday morning, the Australian Electoral Commission is recording a swing of 2.4 per cent towards the opposition.

While Labor was not expecting another Aston result – where Labor made history winning a seat off the opposition during a by-election, the government was quick to point out that swing is well below by-election expectations.

Mr Marles said typically there is a four per cent swing towards the opposition when their seat is vacated while not in government.

Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley said pre polls and postal votes were still to be counted.

Mr Marles said while the government had had low expectations around the by-election, the Fadden result was “certainly no comfort for the opposition”.

“The swing that was there was about half of what you would typically see against the government in a by-election,” Mr Marles said.

“So if Peter Dutton does want to draw any kind of comfort from this result, that says something about where he’s at, and his need for comfort.

“But I actually think this is a pretty lethargic result for the opposition.”

Ms Ley countered, saying it was a “strong result”.

“I think what people said yesterday (is that) they know this Anthony Albanese government is leaving them behind,” she told Sky News.

“I was on the ground at many polling booths, and you get that sense that cost of living crunch, anxiety about the future. We’ve got a government that talks about numbers and sets arbitrary tests and is still playing the politics of opposition.

“I’m not hearing – and the people of Fadden weren’t hearing – a convincing, reassuring message about their future.”

Caldwell wins

Mr Caldwell claimed the win at 8.30pm on Saturday, thanking his wife Lauren, who has been his “rock of support” and his two daughters, Mackenzie and Clementine.

He also thanked LNP volunteers who have supported him throughout the campaign.

“To all of you, success is measured in how the team works,” he said.

“And can I tell you this success tonight for myself personally and for our party has been one built by so many of you, by so many of you who have contributed.

“I must say that this campaign has been one from day one of energy enthusiasm, discipline and you.”

Mr Caldwell said he hoped the result indicated Australia’s desire for the LNP to win both the Queensland and federal election in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

He said Mr Dutton is a “man of integrity” who “will be a magnificent Prime Minister”.

Mr Dutton congratulated Mr Caldwell on his win on Saturday.

Mr Dutton said the LNP win is a clear sign to the government that Australians are wanting support when it comes to cost of living pressures.

“Firstly, the people are fed who, like other people right across the country in marginal seats in outer metropolitan areas, people are hurting at the moment and the Labor economic experiment failing Australia is Labor’s energy experiment is failing Australians,” Mr Dutton said.

“And as you moved around the booths you get people who are raising important issues their mortgages.”

Queensland opposition leader David Crisafulli said the LNP win indicates just how much the sunshine state wants change.

“Earlier this week a Labor senator said that this by election would be an indication of how the LNP is going in Queensland,” Mr Crisafulli said.

“In Cameron Caldwell, half his adult life has been devoted to this community.

“And at a time when Queenslanders are hurting cost of living and housing prices, the youth crime crisis, the health and hospital crisis, Queenslanders have never felt more let down by brand Labor and I spoke loudly.

“But there is a fourth element never have Australians now needed calm and considered and stable leadership more than at this time and in the period and in a period of uncertainty they will look to someone whose equities fit with the challenges that lie ahead of them.

“And today is the first step in the journey to ensuring that Peter Dutton becomes Prime Minister.”

Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro conceded to Mr Caldwell shortly before 8pm on Saturday, calling him to congratulate him on becoming the new member for Fadden.

“We knew this would be an uphill battle, it has sent an important message to the LNP to not take the Gold Coast for granted,” Ms Del Fabbro said.

“I think we can build on this experience to build Labor on the Gold Coast.”

Sky News political analyst Tom Connell called the LNP win about 7.30pm on Saturday, as the party sees a 3.44 per cent swing towards Mr Caldwell in a two candidate preferred projection.

LNP MP Karen Andrews told Sky News she was surprised seeing a swing towards her party.

“I didn’t think there would be a swing to LNP,” Ms Andrews said.

“I thought we would lose the margin on primary, given we have a popular prime minster who is polling higher now than he did at the election.

“I think it’s been a solid result to the LNP.”

Agricultural minister Murray Watt said it looks like the ALP vote is stable.

“It’s a fairly small swing to LNP … and a very small swing against the government,” Mr Watt told Sky News.

“I’m pretty okay with that result. It’s very solid LNP seat, we’re not going to be arrogant about this.

“I think we know we still have work to do on cost of living and we have intentions to do that.”

ABC also confirmed the LNP are projected to win about 7.50pm.

Mr Caldwell was up against Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro, Greens candidate Scott Turner and Sandy Roach of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.

The LNP had maintained a margin of 10.63 per cent on the two-party preferred count at the last election in 2022.

But when Mr Robert quit federal parliament in May, the by-election for the seat of Fadden, in Queensland’s northern Gold Coast, was triggered.

Mr Robert had said his 16 years in politics “has not been a smooth ride”.

The AEC recorded there were 131,340 eligible electors enrolled at the close of the electoral rolls for the Fadden by-election on June 19.

It‘s expected Mr Caldwell will now resign from Gold Coast City Council, where he has been a councillor for more than a decade.

The city’s planning boss will most likely be replaced by Council because the next local government election is less than 12 months away, meaning no by-election in his division is required.

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