JiveSync

Every Wednesday, The Athletic’s MLB writers will be looking at a key what-if scenario from baseball’s history. This week: Justin Turner and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The interest was real. The pursuit, legitimate. If you didn’t take Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio’s word for it in February, Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner recently confirmed as much. In the offseason, the Brewers wanted Turner.

With the Brewers atop the National League Central and the defending World Series champion Dodgers playing like the juggernaut that they are, the four-game series between the teams starting Thursday at American Family Field makes for a fun end-of-April matchup. It’s also a rematch of last year’s wild-card series. It could have been a lot more.

What if the Brewers signed Turner?

“It was competitive from the Brewers,” Turner said on “The Chris Rose Rotation” podcast, outlining his free agency. “They really wanted me. They dug deep.”

The Dodgers were always the overwhelming favorite for Turner. It’s where he wanted to be. Manager Dave Roberts publicly advocated for the veteran’s return, calling him a “Dodger great” and hardly needed to add anything after telling reporters, “you know how much I value him as a person and as a player.”

The Dodgers’ plan without Turner could have included some combination of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor and Edwin Ríos at third base. It’s conceivable the Dodgers would have added another talented player to their deep roster, perhaps via trade. The seemingly inevitable happened on Feb. 13 when the Dodgers re-signed Turner, 36, for two years, $34 million with a $14 million team option for a third year. It was Turner who alerted the baseball world with the breaking news.

Additional plate appearances for Taylor and Muncy aren’t a bad thing; both players’ wRC+ has been over 100, respectively (making their production above average), in each of the past three years. Cody Bellinger being on the injured list under a hypothetical that includes Turner not on the team would’ve tested the Dodgers’ depth. But this is still a team with Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and a pitching staff so robust that David Price had been operating from the bullpen. The guess here is that the Dodgers would have added someone if they lost Turner. The thinking here is that either way, the Dodgers were going to be OK.

It’s more interesting to unravel what might have been for the Brewers with Turner because, as weird as it sounds, maybe they wouldn’t be 13-9.

Turner’s account of the Brewers’ pursuit echoed Attanasio’s. Turner said he talked with all the biggest names around Milwaukee. Manager Craig Counsell. Christian Yelich. Attanasio. President of baseball operations David Stearns. An intense chase made sense.

“Certainly, we need to be able to come into next year believing we can get better offensive production out of those two positions,” Stearns said on Oct. 5, referring to third base and first base.

By landing Turner, the Brewers would’ve accomplished some of that in a major way.

Even third baseman Travis Shaw acknowledged he knew Turner was the preferred choice.

“This place kind of stood out to me from the start, and it was something that I hoped would come together and then obviously after Turner went back to LA, it kind of happened quickly after that,” Shaw said in spring training. “I’m glad that it got done and I’m glad to be back.”

If the Brewers signed Turner, Shaw would likely be playing elsewhere.

Clearly, the Brewers would’ve been a better team with Turner, especially over the duration of a 162-game season. But the Brewers’ moves without him — or after missing out on him — have mostly worked out, too.

The Brewers’ -0.6 fWAR at third base as of Tuesday morning was the worst total in baseball at the position. But Shaw, who owned a -0.1 fWAR in that same timeframe, has been solid, especially for someone who signed a minor-league deal with no guarantee of making the team. Shaw has been a dependable fielder and has a team-best 17 RBIs. His strikeout rate is high, his on-base percentage is low and his wRC+ is only 84, the lowest of anyone with at least 15 RBIs. He’s not Turner. But he’s been serviceable. The Brewers could always add someone before the trade deadline, perhaps at third base. At the very least, Shaw has bought them some time, and that’s valuable.

The Brewers were considering Turner before they officially signed second baseman Kolten Wong. Would they have still added Wong? If not, the infield could have looked something like this:

1B: Keston Hiura

2B: Luis Urías

SS: Orlando Arcia

3B: Justin Turner

Instead, Wong is at second base, Urías is at shortstop and Arcia was traded to the Braves. The Brewers dealt Arcia to make room for Urías, but Shaw’s solid play at third base also made Arcia, who was set to split time with Shaw and Urías, more expendable.

What’s most interesting, though, is what this all would have meant for the Brewers’ outfield.

That’s right.

The outfield.

Would the Brewers have still signed Jackie Bradley Jr.? Could they have? The deferred money in Bradley’s deal makes another move possible. The Brewers added Bradley on March 8. At the time, he gave them four quality outfielders for three spots. But Yelich (back) has been out since April 11 and Lorenzo Cain was placed on the injured list on April 14. The Brewers have needed Bradley and his run-preventing defense earlier and more than they could’ve even anticipated.

Maybe Turner would’ve been so good offensively that the outfield depth for the Brewers wouldn’t have mattered as much. Maybe Turner would’ve had those game-winning hits Shaw had. The way Turner has looked, it’s all reasonable. Turner has slashed .342/.413/.620 with five home runs and a 180 wRC+. Chances are, the Brewers aren’t surprised by those results.

Normally, the Brewers wouldn’t be eager to pay a 36-year-old for multiple years. But this was Turner. An exception would’ve been made.

Turner was an All-Star in 2017. He finished in the top 15 for MVP each year from 2016 to 2018. It was always hard to envision Turner, with his shaggy red hair and beard, in anything but Dodger blue. But a uniform switch was the only difference the Brewers were banking on.

Turner’s numbers have been remarkably consistent without obvious signs of slowing down. He slashed .307/.400/.460 with four home runs and a 140 wRC+ (100 is average) in 175 plate appearances in 2020. Since 2014, his average exit velocity has never been below 89.1 mph, and last year it was 90.3 mph for the second straight season. His strikeout rates and walk rates are typically very strong, his hard-hit rate has improved the last two seasons and FanGraphs’ The BAT X projected he would again hit 20 home runs in 2021. He now seems poised to surpass that.

Turner, as he put it, wants to erase the stigma surrounding older players. He wants veterans to have opportunities for good deals. He wants to play as long as he can — and with only the Dodgers.

“We made a good run at Justin Turner, as has been widely reported,” Attanasio said during spring training. “Look, for very good reason, he’s had a wonderful career in Los Angeles. A lot of success, and I’m sure it was very emotional — in a good way — to stay and conclude his career there. I think that was always the place you thought he was going to land. But he did a huge amount of homework on us.”

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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